Onalytica Indexes Roundup

There is a growing feeling that the US Economy is improving.

On 11 December 2012 the Onalytica Recession-Index (US Economy) has decreased by 6.6 percentage points since 7 days before (see first chart below). The underlying trend for both Onalytica Crisis-Index (US Economy) and Onalytica Debt-Index (US Economy) is downward; the former fell 7.9 percentage points, while the latter was 7.6% below its level on 4 December 2012.


The graph below shows the variation of the Onalytica Recession-Index (US Economy) over the past three months. After reaching a peak on 20 November, the collective narrative on the issue of recession has declined in recent weeks.


With regard to UK Economy, the Autumn Statement from 5 December has slightly changed the attention in the public debate that issues such as recession, crisis, debt and inflation received. On 11 December the Onalytica Recession-Index (UK Economy) has increased 5.3 percentage points above its value on 4 December (see chart below). During the same period the Onalytica Crisis-Index (UK Economy) increased by 5%, while the Onalytica Debt-Index (UK Economy) has risen 9.4%.


Looking at the past three months (first chart below) we can see that the population in general doesn’t currently think that there is a high chance of a recession in the UK. Despite the recent increase, the value of the Onalytica Recession-Index (UK Economy) is currently around the lowest level since September 2012. This “voice of the market” on the state of the economy is eventually picked up by journalists in stories such as this one from the Guardian.


On 11 December the Onalytica Recession-Index (Eurozone) has decreased 3.6% below the value it had on 4 December. During the same time the Onalytica Growth-Index (Eurozone) has increased by 6.2%. However, the focus on issues such as crisis has soared in the last 7 days; the Onalytica Crisis-Index (Eurozone) has gained 11.2 percentage points.


From a long term perspective, the focus on recession is still high. The recent value of the Onalytica Recession-Index (Eurozone) is around the highest level of the last three months.


As for euro area countries, during last week there was a decreased focus on the attempt of Greece to receive a new tranche of bailout loans; the Onalytica Greece-Index (Eurozone) sharply declined by 15.2 percentage points on 11 December as opposed to 4 December.

In the same time there was much more interest in the crisis in Italy and Mario Monti’s resignation on 8 December; the value of the Onalytica Italy-Index (Eurozone) on 11 December was 33.2% above its value on 4 December.