It’s been several months since we published our last ranking of influential economic blogs. Below is an updated list of the top 200 economic blogs, ordered by their Onalytica Influence Index.
An explanation of the methodology can be found in our previous post on influential economic blogs.
Notice that today the influence weighted Onalytica Recession-Index (US Economy) has reached the lowest level of the last three months.
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From our experience, as the influence weighted index has dipped below the equally weighted Onalytica Recession-Index (US Economy), there is reason to believe that the general public’s perception of the US economy will improve.
The focus on the issue of recession in the context of UK economy has risen during December 2012 and first half of January 2013. In that period the Onalytica Recession-Index (UK Economy) jumped 18%. However, the index has recently started to drop again, while the Telegraph reported that the recovery of the economy is back on track.
The spikes in the downward trend of the index, started at the end of April 2012, show that there is a certain nervousness on the market regarding the health of the UK economy.
The Onalytica Recession-Index (UK Economy) has decreased 14% since a year ago and currently is around the lowest level in a year.
The US “fiscal cliff” deal marked a turning point in expectations of a recession in the US. After peaking on January 3 (61%), the Onalytica Recession-Index (US Economy) has fallen sharply, reaching 26% on January 22, 2013. The current value of the index is roughly at a similar level to where it was a year ago.
There is a growing feeling that the US Economy is improving.
On 11 December 2012 the Onalytica Recession-Index (US Economy) has decreased by 6.6 percentage points since 7 days before (see first chart below). The underlying trend for both Onalytica Crisis-Index (US Economy) and Onalytica Debt-Index (US Economy) is downward; the former fell 7.9 percentage points, while the latter was 7.6% below its level on 4 December 2012.
During the second half of this year the focus on fiscal cliff in the context of US Economy has become increasingly popular.
The first chart below shows the trend of the public debate on fiscal cliff since July 2012. All the participants to debate have an equal weight on the topic of US Economy. This means that national media, influential economists and personal blogs have all an equally important voice in the debate.
Unsurprisingly, the focus on fiscal cliff has sharply increased (more than 20%) around the US Election date. After peaking during the week 12-19 November, the public’s interest in the fiscal cliff has slowly started to drop once there were hopes of US budget deal.
Some time ago we have listed the TOP 100 economics blogs, ordered according to their Onalytica Influence Index.
Similarly to how academic journals compute their Impact Factor, we determined the most influential economics blogs based on the number of citations that they receive.
A great deal has changed since half a year ago, when we published the 100 most influential blogs. Some of the blogs on the list no longer have regular posts. Others have grown and become better. Some blogs have only come under our radar in the recent months.
The Top 200 influential economics blogs ordered according to Onalytica Influence Index is listed below.
As in the previous blog post related to influential economics blogs, the table contains the following metrics: Onalytica Influence Index (I), Popularity (P) and Over-Influence (O-I). We refer to the above mentioned post for an explanation of each metric.
Onalytica Indexes are a collection of alternative financial indices which reflect how economic and business issues such as recession, inflation, crisis, etc. are perceived by the population in general and by those with more influence in the debate.
Moreover, the indices are related to several classical financial indices and indicators of the state of the economy.
In a previous post it has been shown that the Recession-Index is often a leading indicator for the direction of increase/decrease of the GDP, both for UK and US Economies.
We discuss here two other examples that highlight the relationships between Onalytica Indexes and economic indices: we compare the US Recession-Index with S&P 500 and with US Treasury Bond Yields (UST 10YR).
First, we have compared the Equal-Weighted US Recession-Index with the S&P 500 index over the period August 2008 to May 2012 (see first chart below).
In a previous post I highlighted a small example of how the Onalytica Recession-Index gave a good indication of an impending recession in the UK.
However, I haven’t had the opportunity to conduct a more thorough analysis so I recently asked my colleague, Dr. Andreea Moldovan, to have a look at the Onalytica Recession-Index in relation to GDP. Her findings impressed me.
Figure 1 (below) shows the UK GDP against Recession-Index for UK Economy. The values for GDP are given in quarterly percentage (or relative) change on previous quarter.
The Recession-Index is a 1 month leading indicator as it can be seen on the chart.
The series have different scales and are represented on different vertical axes, for ease of chart interpretation. The left vertical axis corresponds to the Recession-Index values, while the right axis is for the GDP.
Since Q1 2010 and except for Q4 2010, the Recession-Index correctly predicts the UK GDP direction of growth (increase or decrease) 1 month ahead. On the chart this is reflected by the series having opposite directions: decrease in Recession perception by the population corresponds to a growth in GDP and vice versa. So, in 8 out of 9 situations analysed the prediction is correct.
OECD is now forecasting that the UK economy will enter a recession (story from Telegraph).
From a macro perspective I guess it is not counter-intuitive that growth comes to a halt when the world is engaged in a massive deleveraging operation; and at the same time impacted by the increasing uncertainty caused by the public finances in the Euro Zone.
But reading the forecast from the OECD I couldn’t help think back on the previous posts on this blog about how the change in online sentiment for some time as indicated that a recession was becoming more likely.
The 2nd of August I wrote this post that showed that those with more influence in the debate on the UK economy were becoming more concerned about a possible recession than the public in general.
Since our influence-weighted analyses usually serve as leading indicators, this was a clear warning sign.
On the 1st of November I wrote this post in which I point out that the Onalytica Recession-Index for the UK economy had reached an all-time high (since April 2010).
In October 2011 the equal-weighted Recession-Index, which represents the sentiment of the board population, actually overtook the influence-weighted, which represents the sentiment of those with more influence in the debate on the UK Economy. The gap has widened in November.
This effectively means that the broad population as a whole are now more convinced that we are heading for a recession and are likely to reign in their spending further.